Posted by DEAN SKIP RUTHERFORD – For the last three election cycles (2002, 2004 and 2006), I have taught undergraduate seminars on election analysis. So, in preparation for some upcoming meetings and speeches, here’s my very early line on the 2008 presidential tickets:
Republican: Rudy Giuliani (NY) and Mike Huckabee (AR)
Democrat: Hillary Clinton (NY) and Tom Vilsack (IA)
My reasoning:
Giuliani is already waging a general election campaign, saying he’s the only Republican who can beat Clinton. That, along with his commitment to nominate conservative judges to the federal bench, may be enough for many of the party conservatives to forgive him for some of his liberal views, such as abortion rights. It’s too early in the campaign to determine that, but his nomination would put states like New York and New Jersey into play. In addition, for many, he remains a 9/11 national hero.
Huckabee, as the vice presidential nominee, would reinforce the party’s evangelical base, strengthen the “solid south” and keep Arkansas competitive. In a close election, Arkansas’s six electoral votes could make a difference. And early Arkansas polling has Clinton with a wide lead over Giuliani–another reason to include Huckabee on the ticket. Give Huckabee credit: with little money and against formidable odds, he’s run a very good national campaign to date, and his poll numbers continue to rise.
Unless someone stops Clinton in Iowa, the Democratic nomination is hers. And I think it’s hers regardless. Vilsack would be an attractive choice as a running mate. Most people I’ve talked to don’t see Clinton losing any state that John Kerry carried in 2004. If that’s the case, a win in Ohio or Florida, would put her over the top. With Vilsack on the ticket, she would be the favorite to win Iowa. Vilsack would also be a strong campaigner in the nearby states of Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin. Those who say Clinton can’t win in November are just badly mistaken.
Interesting trivia about these projected match ups:
*Giuliani and Clinton were headed for a 2000 New York Senate race until Giuliani withdrew from the campaign.
*Clinton and Huckabee each lived in the Arkansas Governor’s Mansion, and both believe in a place called Hope. Both badly want to carry Arkansas and both believe they can.
*At Huckabee’s invitation, Vilsack came to Little Rock to run the Little Rock Marathon last year. The two generously praised each other.
Arkansas once again may well be center stage.
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