Below is a presidential primary Q&A with Dean Skip Rutherford heading into tomorrow’s primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont. The answers are drawn from a lecture Dean Rutherford is giving today to University of Central Arkansas President Lu Hardin‘s 2008 Elections Class.
Posted by DEAN SKIP RUTHERFORD –
Q: Who do you think will win in each of the states?
A: I predict Senator Clinton will win the popular vote in Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas. Senator Obama will win the popular vote in Vermont. Senator McCain will win all four Republican primaries.
Q: What about the delegate count?
A. Even with popular vote losses, Senator Obama will still maintain a delegate vote lead on the Democratic side. On the Republican side, my guess is that Governor Huckabee will drop out of the race leaving Senator McCain the clear winner.
Q: Why do you think Senator Clinton will win Texas?
A. My hunch is the Hispanic vote in South Texas will put her (albeit narrowly) over the top. Also, remember she had 25-point leads in Ohio and Texas only a few weeks ago so she probably got a boost from early voting.
Q: If you are right and Senator Clinton wins Texas and Ohio, what happens next?
A. It’s on to Pennsylvania with a shift in momentum. It is also looking more like there could be re-voting in Florida and possibly Michigan. Florida’s Republican Governor, Charlie Crist, said he would support another Democratic primary (which means the state will pay for it). As a result, this nomination process could drag on for weeks.
Q. Is that good for the Democrats with Senator McCain waiting in the wings?
A. The general consensus is no, but it’s a long way between now and November. Remember months ago the general consensus had Senator McCain out of the race and Senator Clinton winning handily. In politics, it has been said that momentum has a limited shelf life.
Q. But what if you are wrong and Senator Obama wins Texas or Ohio or both?
A. That will make it tough–but not impossible–for Senator Clinton. There will be increased pressure from party leaders for her to leave the race if she loses either Texas or Ohio. If she loses both, the pressure to quit will be enormous.
Q. Do you think she will?
A. I don’t know. Former President Bill Clinton said she needed to win both Texas and Ohio to continue, but since that time, people from her campaign have said otherwise.
Q: Do you think Senator McCain is qualified to be President?
A. Yes. The Republicans have nominated (or soon will) their strongest candidate in the field. He also is an American hero. I bet you’re going to see many McCain Democrats between now and November. I don’t know him personally, but his work with “The Gang of 14,” as an example, indicates he’s an independent thinker.
Q. Do you think Senator Obama is qualified to be President?
A. Yes. His message of hope is as inspiring as the leadership of John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Bobby Kennedy and Ronald Reagan–all of whom were great communicators and uplifted America. I have been impressed with his campaign, his staff, his organization and particularly his ability to engage young people and build broad coalitions. I haven’t seen young people this energized about a political campaign since Bobby Kennedy in 1968. I also don’t know him personally but my friends who do give him very high marks.
Q. Do you think Senator Clinton is qualified to be President?
A. Yes. No doubt she would be ready on “day one.” I have known her for years. She’s one of the smartest, most capable and most caring individuals I’ve ever met. She received 70 percent of the vote in Arkansas, and that’s because so many people here know her personally and admire her. Her tenure in the United States Senate has been strong, and she has successfully reached across party lines.
Q: Do you think people will vote for an African American?
A. Yes. Just like I think people will vote for a woman and a 72-year-old white guy.
Q: What will be the November issues?
A. Again, it’s a long time between now and then and issues could change. Right now it’s the economy followed by the war and national security. From the way things are going with higher food prices, higher gas prices, higher health care costs, credit card debt, depressed housing markets and foreclosures, trade issues and little or no job growth, the economy will dominate.
Q: What do you think Governor Huckabee will do after this week’s primaries?
A: He will be a good soldier and support Senator McCain. While I no longer think he would be on the Vice Presidential short list, I give Governor Huckabee credit. He will leave this campaign much stronger on a national level than when he entered it. He’s won some primaries. He’s surprised a lot of people and has more than 250 delegates. In contrast, the once-favored Rudy Giuliani spent about $50 million and won one delegate. Governor Huckabee has also made important long-term contacts throughout the country. Overall, it’s been a good experience for him. My guess is that if Senator McCain wins in November, there will be a role in the administration or National Republican Party if Governor Huckabee wants something like that. If Senator McCain loses, he will probably run for President again in 2012. In the meantime, he’ll make speeches, be a talk show regular (maybe have his own), write books, join boards and keep his options open for a U.S.Senate campaign in 2010. I would be surprised to see him spending a lot of time at Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia unless he is serious (which I doubt and do not think would be a wise move) about a 2010 race challenging Senator Blanche Lincoln.