Posted by BEN BEAUMONT – Speaking at Lyon College in his hometown of Batesville last night, Clinton School Dean Skip Rutherford accessed the unpredictability and excitement of the coming presidential primary season. We are 56 days from the Iowa caucus, the earliest in history, and Dean Rutherford predicts both parties will have clear nominees by Super Tuesday on February 5 when 19 states, including Arkansas, will hold their primaries.
Rutherford noted some interesting statistics:
-As has been analyzed everywhere, 2008 will be the first election without a sitting president or vice president in the field since 1952. This has been the case only eight times in our country’s history, and on all eight occasions, the Republican candidate has been victorious. Some notables are Eisenhower in 1952, Hoover in 1928 and Lincoln in 1860.
-Recent polling shows that 50 percent of Americans “strongly disapprove” of President Bush’s performance, surpassing President Nixon’s numbers during the height of the Watergate scandal.
-Polling also shows that young Americans (ages 18-29) strongly favor Democrats (62 percent) over Republicans (30 percents) in the coming congressional races. And while 5 million more young adults voted in 2004 than did in 2000, that number could continue to rise with growing Internet social networks (FaceBook, My Space, etc.) and the onset of more and more “text messaging” among young people. Don’t doubt that campaigns will use these outlets as tools to turn out the youth vote.
-The most telling stat of all could be this: 47 percent of likely voters believe Democrats are the best party to handle a military threat, while 42 percent side with Republicans. Republicans have long been the party of choice for national security, but that could be changing for 2008.
Among all of the statistic and analysis one thing is certain – Arkansas will once again remain in the spotlight as Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field and Mike Huckabee continues to make waves as a “dark horse” for the Republicans.
To keep track of all that encompasses the 2008 elections, Dean Rutherford and the Clinton School Blog recommend the following blogs and Web sites:
• hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com
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