Posted by DEAN SKIP RUTHERFORD – We will know a great deal about the likely nominees for President after tonight’s Iowa caucuses. We may not know who will be the actual nominees, but it’s likely we will know many who won’t be. Iowa voters will weed out the second tier.
Election eve provided some interesting developments. Pollster Frank Luntz noted a John Edwards television advertisement that is proving to be very effective. In Luntz’s televised Democratic focus group, the majority of participants were voting for Edwards. Some 3,500 people also showed up at an election-eve Edwards rally featuring John Melancamp last night. Momentum at this stage of the electoral process is a candidate’s dream.
Mike Huckabee was live on Jay Leno. Hillary Clinton did a taped interview with David Letterman. I didn’t see Hillary’s interview, but I thought Huckabee did well. While some criticized him being there, I thought it was a good move. After all, given Iowa’s extremely cold weather, there were probably more Iowans watching Leno than would have showed up at a Huckabee event. It also had to be helpful in New Hampshire and South Carolina. I gave special interest to his continuing complimentary remarks about John McCain. Already some are speculating about a McCain-Huckabee ticket, particularly with Huckabee’s Southern ties and strong evangelical base. Furthermore, McCain, with his recent surge and foreign policy experience, united with Huckabee in their disappointment with Mitt Romney.
The real question tonight is whether Romney’s money and organization can be offset by Huckabee’s grassroots support. Don’t underestimate the number of church vans taking people to the polls–and Huckabee doesn’t have to pay a dime.
Terry McAuliffe, Hillary’s finance chairman who recently spoke at the Clinton School, was interviewed last night and pointed out that Hillary was ahead in 20 of the 27 states which vote between now and February 5–when Arkansas and over 20 other states vote. If Hillary wins Iowa tonight, she would emerge as the prohibitive Democratic frontrunner given her organization and money. If she doesn’t win Iowa but is competitive, she still remains very much in the mix.
Tonight will also examine the effectiveness of a new trend in politics: “texting turnout”…I wonder how many college students and young people supporting Obama will be sending this text message today: “OBAMA CAUCUS.” If young people vote in large numbers, Barack Obama likely wins. Text messaging gets its first major voter turnout test in Iowa.
Clinton School student James Mitchell has done a great job for us blogging from Iowa. I’ve followed news reports and other blogs, and James has competed with the best of them. Check out his most recent posts.
Here are some more Iowa predictions from Arkansans:
• Businessman and civic leader Gene Pfeiffer – Democrat: Obama; Republican: Romney.
• Civic and community leader Marilynn Porter – Republican: Romney, Huckabee; Democrat: Edwards, Clinton, Obama.
• Attorney Scott Trotter – Democrat: Obama; Republican: Romney.
Join us tonight at the election watch party at the Clinton School beginning at 7:30 p.m.