Posted by DEAN SKIP RUTHERFORD –
*John McCain won the Republican primary in South Carolina, but he’s lucky that his good friend Fred Thompson was also on the ballot. Thompson took enough votes away from Mike Huckabee to deny him the victory. Without Thompson, Huckabee most likely would have won. Still, Huckabee’s second place showing and his national appeal among evangelicals and conservatives (much stronger to date than Thompson) makes him an attractive vice presidential choice if he doesn’t win the presidential nomination. I once thought the Republicans gained little by naming a Southern Governor to the ticket because if the Republican nominee couldn’t carry the South on his own, he couldn’t win anyway. However, Huckabee has shown that he has support–far beyond the South–from the influential evangelical/conservative base of the party. If McCain is the nominee, he’s going to need that constituency. Note that in his South Carolina concession speech, Huckabee once again paid more than perfunctory tribute to McCain as he has done throughout the caucus/primary season.
*Hillary Clinton continued her upswing with a significant victory in Nevada, a state, like New Hampshire, where she was ahead, fell behind and then came back and won. Give credit to her, another big turnout of women voters, her organization which brought out thousands of new caucus attendees and to her husband, the former president, who spent time campaigning “one-on-one” while shaking hands and visiting with casino workers–whose union had endorsed Barack Obama. In route from Nevada to South Carolina, Senator Clinton spoke at a late night rally in brutally cold St. Louis (Missouri votes on February 5) where an estimated and very impressive 6,000 people showed up.As the campaign now focuses on South Carolina, I’m told Bill Clinton is planning to go “door-to-door” in South Carolina’s African American community. I’ve seen him do that in Arkansas. It works.
*Not since Bobby Kennedy’s campaign in 1968 have young voters been more energized about an election. Obama not only continues to solidify the African American vote, which is projected to be more than 50 percent of the Democratic primary total in South Carolina Saturday, but he has engaged and activated large numbers of young people all over the country, and that’s a good thing. (I saw it myself on a recent visit to the KIPP college preparatory school in Helena, Ark.) When you analyze the results of the caucuses and primaries, Obama’s strength is among African Americans and voters 18-30. Just like the Republicans need the evangelicals, Democrats will need African Americans and young voters to win in November.
*Arkansas, along with Missouri and more than 20 other states including Illinois, New York, Tennessee, California and New Jersey, votes February 5.
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