Super Tuesday and the Barber Shop Poll

Posted by DEAN SKIP RUTHERFORD – On election day for over 15 years, I stopped by Roy Sullivan’s Little Rock barber shop to get his predictions. About 95 percent of the time Roy correctly called the outcome. I never missed an election–and Roy never missed offering a prediction. Notwithstanding getting a haircut when needed, my visits to his barber shop were also opportunities to engage in great debates.

In the 2008 presidential election, we’ve already seen glaring errors in the New Hampshire and South Carolina polls. But in election after election Roy’s “barber shop poll” was rarely wrong. On those few occasions he missed it, it was by the narrowest of margins.

This past weekend I had the great privilege of delivering the eulogy at Roy’s memorial service. Roy had a stroke several years ago and over the last few months his condition had worsened. He passed away peacefully last week surrounded by his family.

Roy loved people and politics. He had a keen understanding of both. He was also a firm believer in “term limits” long before they became popular. I don’t think he ever voted for an incumbent, and he wasn’t at all fond of taxes. As a result, it didn’t take us long to find a discussion topic.

When Mack McLarty became President Bill Clinton‘s chief of staff and moved to Washington, he sent Roy a hand-written note from the White House which said, “Roy, I Miss You.” Roy had that note framed on the wall beside his barber chair. 

I miss Roy too. Today is a big election day. Twenty-four states, including Arkansas, will hold primaries for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations.

I’ll drop by Roy’s shop (now owned and operated by his son Scott) as I have continued to do on election days–even since Roy retired. Others may turn to the New York Times, CNN, Zogby, Reuters or the Associated Press for predictions, but I’ll be counting on the reliable results of the barber shop poll.

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